Projecting revenue for a new AI product can feel like guessing. I'll share how I build a market model from the ground up, without relying on traditional top-down methods that often don't work.
What I've Learned From 149 Companies
Across 234 angel investments, including Anthropic, a few patterns in market sizing come up again and again.
The founders who handle market sizing well understand that customer feedback is the only metric that matters.
The Framework That Actually Works
Here is a simple framework for evaluating market sizing. It's not complicated, but it requires discipline.
Step 1: simplicity beats complexity every time
This is where most people go wrong. They skip this step entirely and jump straight to execution. Don't do that.
Step 2: your team matters more than your technology
Once you have the foundation right, this becomes much easier. I've watched founders struggle with this for months when the answer was staring them in the face.
Step 3: Iterate relentlessly
Nothing works perfectly the first time. The companies that get market sizing right treat it as an ongoing process, not a one-time project.
The Numbers Don't Lie
Investing early in market sizing can be the difference between raising your next round and running out of runway.
One of my portfolio companies went from struggling to profitable in under a year after they finally got serious about this. The founder told me later that they wished they'd started sooner.
This connects to broader themes around AI pitch decks, AI startup pivots, AI due diligence that I've been thinking about a lot lately.
What's Next
Best practice in market sizing is changing fast. What worked last year might not work next year. That's both the challenge and the opportunity.
My advice: stay curious, stay humble, and stay close to the people who are actually doing the work. Read less thought leadership and do more experiments. Talk to fewer consultants and more practitioners.
If you're building in this space, the best time to get market sizing right is before you need to. Don't wait for a crisis to force your hand.
I'll keep sharing what I learn. This stuff matters too much to keep to myself.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q:What's the most common pushback you get on this?
People often push back by citing exceptions or edge cases. And they're usually right that exceptions exist. But building a strategy around exceptions rather than patterns is a losing game for most founders.
Q:How has this view evolved over time?
My thinking on most topics has changed significantly over the years. Early in my career, I held many conventional views that experience proved wrong. I try to update my beliefs when the evidence changes.
Q:Do all experts agree with this view?
No, and that's fine. The best ideas in business are often contrarian. I share my perspective based on my experience and data, but I encourage you to seek out opposing viewpoints and form your own conclusions.