After years in the trenches of Silicon Valley, I've seen firsthand how the right AI hardware can make or break a company. I'm sharing the hard-won lessons and contrarian insights I wish I had when I started, from navigating the GPU shortage to building our own custom silicon.
What I've Learned From 28 Companies
A few patterns in quantum computing come up again and again.
The founders who handle quantum computing well understand that most founders overthink this and underspend on execution.
The Reality Nobody Talks About
A lot of the advice on quantum computing rests on assumptions that made sense five years ago. The world has moved on.
The first thing to understand is that timing is everything in this game. I've seen this play out across dozens of companies. The pattern is unmistakable.
Many teams spend months on the wrong path before realizing that the market doesn't care about your roadmap. Once they make the switch, everything changes.
What I Tell Founders
Before deciding anything about quantum computing, start with three questions:
What's your timeline? Because the right approach for a company with 6 months of runway is very different from one with 3 years.
What have you already tried? Most founders have tried something. Understanding what didn't work is often more valuable than knowing what might.
Who on your team owns this? If the answer is "everyone" or "no one," that's your first problem to solve.
These questions seem simple but they reveal a lot about where a company actually stands.
This connects to broader themes around AI chips, quantum computing, AI cloud that I've been thinking about a lot lately.
Wrapping Up
I've shared a lot here, and I know it can feel overwhelming. But you don't need to get quantum computing right on day one. You just need to get started and keep improving.
Founders who do well at quantum computing tend to share one trait: they're relentlessly practical. They don't chase perfection. They chase progress.
That's the mindset I'd encourage you to adopt. Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can. And keep pushing forward.
As always, I'm rooting for you.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q:What experience informs this perspective?
This perspective comes from over a decade of building companies in Silicon Valley, two successful exits (RemoteTeam to Gusto, MovieLaLa to Gfycat), and investing in 234 startups including Anthropic, OpenAI, and Scale AI. I write about what I've lived.
Q:Do all experts agree with this view?
No, and that's fine. The best ideas in business are often contrarian. I share my perspective based on my experience and data, but I encourage you to seek out opposing viewpoints and form your own conclusions.
Q:How has this view evolved over time?
My thinking on most topics has changed significantly over the years. Early in my career, I held many conventional views that experience proved wrong. I try to update my beliefs when the evidence changes.
Q:How can I apply this thinking to my own situation?
Start by identifying the core principle behind the opinion, not the specific example. Then ask yourself: does this principle apply to my context? If yes, test it in a small, low-risk way before going all in.