This article looks at Figure AI: what tends to work, what usually fails, and how to start.
The Framework That Actually Works
Here is a simple framework for evaluating Figure AI. It's not complicated, but it requires discipline.
Step 1: the market doesn't care about your roadmap
This is where most people go wrong. They skip this step entirely and jump straight to execution. Don't do that.
Step 2: simplicity beats complexity every time
Once you have the foundation right, this becomes much easier. I've watched founders struggle with this for months when the answer was staring them in the face.
Step 3: Iterate relentlessly
Nothing works perfectly the first time. The companies that get Figure AI right treat it as an ongoing process, not a one-time project.
Why Most Approaches Fail
Many common approaches to Figure AI are flawed at the root.
The root cause is usually one of three things:
Copying what big companies do without understanding why they do it. What works for Google doesn't work for a 10-person startup.
Over-engineering the solution when a simple approach would work better. I've seen teams spend six months building something that could have been done in two weeks.
Ignoring the human element. Technology is the easy part. Getting people to actually use it is where the real challenge lives.
The Reality Nobody Talks About
A lot of the advice on Figure AI rests on assumptions that made sense five years ago. The world has moved on.
The first thing to understand is that the market doesn't care about your roadmap. I've seen this play out across dozens of companies. The pattern is unmistakable.
Many teams spend months on the wrong path before realizing that your team matters more than your technology. Once they make the switch, everything changes.
Lessons From the Trenches
I want to share a few specific lessons I've picked up over the years. These aren't theoretical. They come from real companies, real failures, and real successes.
Lesson 1: The best time to start thinking about Figure AI was yesterday. The second best time is now. Don't wait until you have the perfect plan.
Lesson 2: Hire for attitude, train for skill. The best people at Figure AI are rarely the most technically gifted. They are the most curious and persistent.
Lesson 3: Your competitors are probably getting this wrong too. That's your opportunity. While everyone else is following the same playbook, you can zig when they zag.
This connects to broader themes around humanoid robots, autonomous vehicles, Tesla Optimus, surgical robots that I've been thinking about a lot lately.
Wrapping Up
I've shared a lot here, and I know it can feel overwhelming. But you don't need to get Figure AI right on day one. You just need to get started and keep improving.
Founders who do well at Figure AI tend to share one trait: they're relentlessly practical. They don't chase perfection. They chase progress.
That's the mindset I'd encourage you to adopt. Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can. And keep pushing forward.
As always, I'm rooting for you.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q:How has this view evolved over time?
My thinking on most topics has changed significantly over the years. Early in my career, I held many conventional views that experience proved wrong. I try to update my beliefs when the evidence changes.
Q:How can I apply this thinking to my own situation?
Start by identifying the core principle behind the opinion, not the specific example. Then ask yourself: does this principle apply to my context? If yes, test it in a small, low-risk way before going all in.
Q:What experience informs this perspective?
This perspective comes from over a decade of building companies in Silicon Valley, two successful exits (RemoteTeam to Gusto, MovieLaLa to Gfycat), and investing in 234 startups including Anthropic, OpenAI, and Scale AI. I write about what I've lived.