I analyzed the inference costs of the top 20 LLMs and the results will surprise you. This deep dive reveals the hidden factors that drive up costs and provides a framework for making smarter, more economical choices for your AI stack.
The Framework That Actually Works
Here is a simple framework for evaluating LLM inference costs. It's not complicated, but it requires discipline.
Step 1: the data tells a different story than your gut
This is where most people go wrong. They skip this step entirely and jump straight to execution. Don't do that.
Step 2: you should focus on one thing and do it exceptionally well
Once you have the foundation right, this becomes much easier. I've watched founders struggle with this for months when the answer was staring them in the face.
Step 3: Iterate relentlessly
Nothing works perfectly the first time. The companies that get LLM inference costs right treat it as an ongoing process, not a one-time project.
The Reality Nobody Talks About
A lot of the advice on LLM inference costs rests on assumptions that made sense five years ago. The world has moved on.
The first thing to understand is that timing is everything in this game. I've seen this play out across dozens of companies. The pattern is unmistakable.
Many teams spend months on the wrong path before realizing that most founders overthink this and underspend on execution. Once they make the switch, everything changes.
The AI Angle
Any discussion of LLM inference costs in 2026 has to include AI. As someone who's invested in Anthropic, OpenAI, Scale AI, and Hugging Face, I have a front-row seat to how AI is transforming this space.
The short version: AI makes good practitioners better and bad practitioners worse. It's an amplifier, not a replacement.
Some teams use AI to get far more out of LLM inference costs. Others spend heavily on AI that solves the wrong problem. The difference comes down to understanding what you're actually trying to achieve.
This connects to broader themes around model distillation, inference optimization, token economics that I've been thinking about a lot lately.
Wrapping Up
I've shared a lot here, and I know it can feel overwhelming. But you don't need to get LLM inference costs right on day one. You just need to get started and keep improving.
Founders who do well at LLM inference costs tend to share one trait: they're relentlessly practical. They don't chase perfection. They chase progress.
That's the mindset I'd encourage you to adopt. Start where you are. Use what you have. Do what you can. And keep pushing forward.
As always, I'm rooting for you.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q:How has this view evolved over time?
My thinking on most topics has changed significantly over the years. Early in my career, I held many conventional views that experience proved wrong. I try to update my beliefs when the evidence changes.
Q:How can I apply this thinking to my own situation?
Start by identifying the core principle behind the opinion, not the specific example. Then ask yourself: does this principle apply to my context? If yes, test it in a small, low-risk way before going all in.
Q:What experience informs this perspective?
This perspective comes from over a decade of building companies in Silicon Valley, two successful exits (RemoteTeam to Gusto, MovieLaLa to Gfycat), and investing in 234 startups including Anthropic, OpenAI, and Scale AI. I write about what I've lived.
Q:What's the most common pushback you get on this?
People often push back by citing exceptions or edge cases. And they're usually right that exceptions exist. But building a strategy around exceptions rather than patterns is a losing game for most founders.