Sahin Boydas
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Can AI Predict Clinical Trial Success?

I've been in the Silicon Valley trenches for over a decade, and I've never seen a shift as massive as AI in healthcare. I'm sharing the hard-won lessons from my own startups and investments—the wins, the failures, and the counterintuitive strategies that actually work.

2024-07-257 min read593 words

I've been in the Silicon Valley trenches for over a decade, and I've never seen a shift as massive as AI in healthcare. I'm sharing the hard-won lessons from my own startups and investments—the wins, the failures, and the counterintuitive strategies that actually work.

What I've Learned From 77 Companies

A few patterns in clinical trials come up again and again.

The founders who handle clinical trials well understand that you should focus on one thing and do it exceptionally well.

The Reality Nobody Talks About

A lot of the advice on clinical trials rests on assumptions that made sense five years ago. The world has moved on.

The first thing to understand is that the market doesn't care about your roadmap. I've seen this play out across dozens of companies. The pattern is unmistakable.

Many teams spend months on the wrong path before realizing that your team matters more than your technology. Once they make the switch, everything changes.

The Counterintuitive Truth

In clinical trials, the best practitioners often do less, not more.

The lesson: customer feedback is the only metric that matters. It sounds simple. It's incredibly hard to execute.

The AI Angle

Any discussion of clinical trials in 2026 has to include AI. As someone who's invested in Anthropic, OpenAI, Scale AI, and Hugging Face, I have a front-row seat to how AI is transforming this space.

The short version: AI makes good practitioners better and bad practitioners worse. It's an amplifier, not a replacement.

Some teams use AI to get far more out of clinical trials. Others spend heavily on AI that solves the wrong problem. The difference comes down to understanding what you're actually trying to achieve.

This connects to broader themes around AI radiology, drug discovery AI, healthcare automation that I've been thinking about a lot lately.

What's Next

Best practice in clinical trials is changing fast. What worked last year might not work next year. That's both the challenge and the opportunity.

My advice: stay curious, stay humble, and stay close to the people who are actually doing the work. Read less thought leadership and do more experiments. Talk to fewer consultants and more practitioners.

If you're building in this space, the best time to get clinical trials right is before you need to. Don't wait for a crisis to force your hand.

I'll keep sharing what I learn. This stuff matters too much to keep to myself.

FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Q:How can I apply this thinking to my own situation?

Start by identifying the core principle behind the opinion, not the specific example. Then ask yourself: does this principle apply to my context? If yes, test it in a small, low-risk way before going all in.

Q:How has this view evolved over time?

My thinking on most topics has changed significantly over the years. Early in my career, I held many conventional views that experience proved wrong. I try to update my beliefs when the evidence changes.

Q:What's the most common pushback you get on this?

People often push back by citing exceptions or edge cases. And they're usually right that exceptions exist. But building a strategy around exceptions rather than patterns is a losing game for most founders.

Q:What experience informs this perspective?

This perspective comes from over a decade of building companies in Silicon Valley, two successful exits (RemoteTeam to Gusto, MovieLaLa to Gfycat), and investing in 234 startups including Anthropic, OpenAI, and Scale AI. I write about what I've lived.

Written by

Sahin Boydas

Serial entrepreneur, #1 angel investor, author of Becoming Top 1%

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