The venture is shifting under our feet. The old way of doing things is dying. Based on what I'm seeing in the market, a deep understanding of dilution is about to become the single most critical differentiator for successful investors in 2027. Here's why and how to get ahead of the curve.
The Reality Nobody Talks About
A lot of the advice on dilution rests on assumptions that made sense five years ago. The world has moved on.
The first thing to understand is that customer feedback is the only metric that matters. I've seen this play out across dozens of companies. The pattern is unmistakable.
Many teams spend months on the wrong path before realizing that the best solutions are often the simplest ones. Once they make the switch, everything changes.
The Framework That Actually Works
Here is a simple framework for evaluating dilution. It's not complicated, but it requires discipline.
Step 1: you should focus on one thing and do it exceptionally well
This is where most people go wrong. They skip this step entirely and jump straight to execution. Don't do that.
Step 2: timing is everything in this game
Once you have the foundation right, this becomes much easier. I've watched founders struggle with this for months when the answer was staring them in the face.
Step 3: Iterate relentlessly
Nothing works perfectly the first time. The companies that get dilution right treat it as an ongoing process, not a one-time project.
The Counterintuitive Truth
In dilution, the best practitioners often do less, not more.
The lesson: the data tells a different story than your gut. It sounds simple. It's incredibly hard to execute.
What I Tell Founders
Before deciding anything about dilution, start with three questions:
What's your timeline? Because the right approach for a company with 6 months of runway is very different from one with 3 years.
What have you already tried? Most founders have tried something. Understanding what didn't work is often more valuable than knowing what might.
Who on your team owns this? If the answer is "everyone" or "no one," that's your first problem to solve.
These questions seem simple but they reveal a lot about where a company actually stands.
This connects to broader themes around dilution, portfolio construction, syndicate investing, rolling funds that I've been thinking about a lot lately.
Final Thoughts
There are no shortcuts in dilution, but there are smarter paths.
The strongest teams treat dilution as a competitive advantage, not a checkbox. They invest in it early, measure it obsessively, and never stop improving.
If you're just getting started with dilution, don't be intimidated. Everyone starts somewhere. The key is to start with the right mindset and the right framework, and then execute like your company depends on it. Because it probably does.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q:What experience informs this perspective?
This perspective comes from over a decade of building companies in Silicon Valley, two successful exits (RemoteTeam to Gusto, MovieLaLa to Gfycat), and investing in 234 startups including Anthropic, OpenAI, and Scale AI. I write about what I've lived.
Q:How has this view evolved over time?
My thinking on most topics has changed significantly over the years. Early in my career, I held many conventional views that experience proved wrong. I try to update my beliefs when the evidence changes.
Q:What's the most common pushback you get on this?
People often push back by citing exceptions or edge cases. And they're usually right that exceptions exist. But building a strategy around exceptions rather than patterns is a losing game for most founders.
Q:Do all experts agree with this view?
No, and that's fine. The best ideas in business are often contrarian. I share my perspective based on my experience and data, but I encourage you to seek out opposing viewpoints and form your own conclusions.